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Research Report: Stock code:
  24-10-2014 (五)    China Macroeconomic Report - Economic growth slowed down
  23-10-2014 (四)    Peace Map Holding (402.HK) - Performance will burst out with prominent advantages
  22-10-2014 (三)    SINOSOFT TECH (1297.HK) - National policy favors the company
  21-10-2014 (二)    China Suntien Green Energy (956.HK) - The short-term bad situation cannot stop the long-term development
  20-10-2014 (一)    Air China (753.HK) - Sep. traffic data review
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China Macroeconomic Report - Economic growth slowed down

-According to the data of NBSC on 21st Sep, China’s economic growth maintained stable, but declined quarter by quarter. As at the end of 3Q, China’s accumulated GDP increased by 7.4% y-y to RMB41.99 trillion, flat growth for the previous quarter. In the first three quarters, the growths of GDP were 7.4%, 7.5% and 7.3% respectively. We expect it would be around 7.2-7.3% in 4Q2014;

-By the end of Sep, China’s foreign reserve amounted to US$3.89 trillion accumulatively, up 6.14%, the lowest record since April 2013, and both the growth and absolute value started to go down. Main reasons of the consistent growth are FDI, trade surplus, and international capital inflows, the current trend represents international investors hold conservative prospects for China’s economy, the speed of capital inflow may go down in future;

-According to CPI, it trended to go down in 2014. By the end of Sep, China’s CPI decreased to 1.6%, down 0.4ppts compared with Aug, the lowest in the last 56 months. Therefore we believe there is a easing inflationary pressure in 2014. Currently the inflationary pressure reduces largely, but we believe China may face the risk of deflation in future if CPI continued to decrease under the downward trend of macro economy;

-The PBOC has made the easing monetary policy after 2012 in order to reduce the pressure of the slow-down of economy growth. By the end of Sep 2014, 1-year deposit and lending interest rates of Chinese financial institutions maintained on 3% and 6% respectively;

-According to the money supply, based on the latest data from the PBOC, as at the end of Sep 2014, China’s M1 and M2 increased by 4.77% and 11.57% to RMB32.72 trillion and RMB120.21 trillion respectively;

-The PBOC has controlled loans and deposits strictly since 2012, and the growths of loans and deposits of Chinese financial institutions maintained at the low level. The growth of deposit of residents continued to decrease while the growth of loans also decreased. As at the end of Sep, deposit of residents increased by 8.53% to RMB48.09 trillion. RMB loans of China’s financial institutions reached RMB79.58 trillion with the y-y growth rate of 13.23%, lower than 14.27% in 3Q2013. It is worth noting that deposits of residents decreased slightly in Jul and Aug, and rebounded in Sep;

-According to the latest data from MOFCOM, by the end of Sep 2014, China’s accumulated FDI amounted to US$87.36 billion (excluding banking, securities and insurance), down 1.4% y-y. Newly-added monthly FDI accorded to US$9.01 billion, up slightly 1.9% y-y, increased largely compared with Aug;

-PMI maintained stable growth in 2014, close to 50%. According to the data from the NBSC and CFLP, by the end of Sep, China’s PMI was 51.1%, and New Order Index was 52.2%, up 0.1 and 0.2ppts compared with the end of 2013 respectively, representing the stable range of economy currently;

-According to investments, by the end of Sep 2014, China’s investment in fixed assets in urban areas achieved to RMB35.78 trillion, increased by 15.71% y-y of which the investment in property development decreased obviously by 12.49% y-y to RMB6.88 trillion. Residential property investment reached to RMB4.67 trillion accumulatively, up 11.3% y-y, 1.1ppts higher than that of Aug, around 68.0% of total property investment;

-In 2014 the demand of domestic consumption decreased, and the growth rate slowed down, the willing of consumption of customers reduced due to the increase of living expenses in the first-tier cities. By the end of Sep, retail sales of consumer goods reached to RMB18.92 trillion, up 12.0% y-y, online retails sales increased largely by 49.9% to RMB1.82 trillion. Monthly retail sales grew 11.6% y-y to RMB2.3 trillion;

-China’s foreign trade was improved slightly, but the growth rate stayed at the low level in recent years. By the end of Sep 2014, China’s monthly imports and exports increased by 15.3% and 7% y-y to US$182.745 and 213.6878 billion respectively. Monthly trade surplus recorded to US$30.94 billion, up significantly 103.42% y-y;

-In the middle and long term, based on a 3-year investment, the performance of China’s stock market disappointed, much lower than other major markets. However, in 2014, China’s stock market rebounded, and it was better than most of major markets based on a 1-year investment, only lower than that of India. In the long run, the correlation between developed markets and emerging markets is higher than the neutral level (R^2=0.6168≈62%) from 2005 to Oct 2014, representing the increase of the impact from developed markets to emerging markets including China, which is mainly because of the higher interrelationship among markets under the process of internationalization;

-In summary, China’s economic scale maintains stable growth, but still faces serious challenges under the current uncertainty of the global economy, especially under the downward trend of economic growth, we believe the main emphasis of the work for Chinese central government in future are trying to maintain the stable economic growth, reduce the trade dispute, promote the industrial restructuring, control the growth of loans and prevent the systematic risks from shadow bank.

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